Maybe I’m just jealous, but I can’t help it. Isn’t the MacArthur “Genius Grant” kind of like the Heisman Trophy for smart people. It’s a big deal, yes, but a horrible predictor of future greatness. I’d love to see a study of MacArthur Fellows, kind of a where-are-they-now thing.

None of this is to say that the winners aren’t deserving, just that it seems a little presumptuous to dub someone a genius until they been dead a few decades.