Election Thoughts: We Aren’t Stupid
Posted by Mike | May 7, 2008 | |
Conventionally wisdom has it that it doesn’t really matter who the Democrat candidate is, they will wlk away with the election in November. I can’t help being a contrarian here. Yes, Republicans are about as unpopular as disco, but I don’t think the public is stupid. I think they are far less partisan that most of us in the media, and I don’t think they’ll make their decision in fall based on the status of the Republican brand, as Newt Gingrich suggested yesterday. This election is going to be between John McCain and Barack Obama and their party affiliation borderline irrelevant.
Gingrich is right that the Republican “brand” is toast. But the Democrats aren’t doing all that much better. The fact is both parties have run out of political capital with mainstream common-sense Americans. Yet, we still have to vote for someone don’t we.
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May 7th, 2008 @ 2:42 pm
I agree that both “brands” are toasty… but you have to stop and consider why that is so.
For Republicans, the problems seem to stem (based on polling: telephone polling, exit polling, etc.) from adherence to what passes for a “conservative” agenda, which many Americans believe to have failed on both foreign and domestic fronts.
For Dems, the problems appear to be a result of their lack of willingness to strongly challenge the President and the GOP minorities in Congress. Again, based on polling, Americans want the Dems to stand up to the Prez, etc.
So far, as individuals, McCain has not actually distanced himself policy-wise from Pres. Bush (he has in his rhetoric, but not in deed) whereas Obama’s entire campaign is based on challenging the status quo.
You raise good points.
May 7th, 2008 @ 4:22 pm
I am not sure McCain is really associated with Bush that closely. They might have similar policy positions, but their starkly different styles I think makes them foils in most minds.
May 7th, 2008 @ 4:55 pm
But MPV it is precisely those policy positions that people have soured on even if McCain and Bush are not viewed as bosom buddies (though there is enough photographic and video evidence to begin countering even that).
My hunch (and yes, I’m biased) is that like Alan Keyes vs. Obama, Sen. McCain has hit his ceiling in this campaign. Given national demographics he may be able to stick close to his ceiling, but I don’t see how he’s able to move up as voters start to realize that he’s the same cheeseburger, just in a new wrapper.
May 13th, 2008 @ 10:18 am
McCain can win if he keeps his “new tone” up, against what will certainly be hysterics from the left. But if he once, even a teensy weensy little bit, appears to lose his temper, it’s OVA! The MSM will play that up, and he’ll be Nixon / Dole / Fred Thompson all wrapped up into one. And then he’ll finally learn that the MSM weren’t his friends all along.